Record Container Ship Orders Spark Oversupply Concerns in Global Shipping Market

The global containership industry is bracing for potential market upheaval as the orderbook has swelled to 11.61 million TEU, representing 34.8% of the current fleet—a level that extends well beyond routine fleet replacement needs, according to maritime intelligence firm Linerlytica.

The surge comes on the back of an unprecedented ordering spree in 2025, with carriers placing orders for 633 ships totaling 5.08 million TEU, surpassing previous records set in 2021 and 2024. Recent additions from COSCO and Hapag-Lloyd pushed the year’s total past the 4.77 million TEU ordered in 2024 and the 4.74 million TEU from 2021.

Linerlytica says this aggressive expansion “raises the spectre of over-supply in the next 4 years.” The concern centers on whether cargo demand will keep pace with the massive influx of new capacity scheduled for delivery through 2029.

Chinese shipyards continue to dominate the newbuild market despite ongoing U.S. concerns about Chinese shipbuilding capacity. Yards in China secured 497 units, or 79% of orders, accounting for 3.66 million TEU or 72% of total capacity. South Korean shipbuilders regained some ground, increasing their share from 11% in 2024 to 27% in 2025, adding 1.35 million TEU.

The immediate market remains volatile. After carriers failed to secure rate increases earlier in December, they launched another round of rate hikes in mid-December with limited success. While the Shanghai Containerized Freight Index surged 7.8% on one Friday, carriers quickly began rolling back portions of the increases.

Looking ahead to 2026, the Premier Alliance carriers announced their service network will include two additional Transpacific PSW services and an upgraded Asia-North Europe string starting in April. The alliance will maintain routing via the Cape of Good Hope rather than returning to the Suez Canal route, citing ongoing security concerns.

The combination of record ordering, uncertain demand growth, and intensifying carrier competition sets the stage for potential market disruption as the new tonnage enters service over the coming years. Whether the industry can absorb this capacity without triggering a prolonged period of depressed freight rates remains the critical question facing shipping executives and analysts.

By: Mike Schuler, gCaptain, CIFFA