Tariffs, Trade Deficits, and Opportunity: How the Vietnam–U.S. Deal Could Reshape Freight Flows in 2026

Vietnam is working to sign a trade agreement with the United States soon, Deputy Prime Minister Bui Thanh Son said on Wednesday, as a new round of negotiations gets underway in Washington.

In October, the two countries agreed to finalise a trade deal within weeks that would maintain U.S. tariffs of 20% on its imports of Vietnamese goods, but exempt some unspecified products from the new duty imposed by U.S. President Donald Trump in August.

Son urged U.S. businesses at a conference in Hanoi to help in bilateral negotiations so that the two parties could "soon sign a fair and balanced trade agreement."

Assistant Secretary of State for East Asian and Pacific Affairs, Michael DeSombre, told the conference in a recorded statement that the trade deal should rebalance commercial flows between the two countries, reducing the U.S. deficit with Hanoi, which is the largest after China and Mexico.

For the first 10 months of the year, Vietnam has recorded a $111 billion trade surplus with the U.S. - pointing to another potential annual record - according to Vietnamese data, which is usually more conservative than U.S. trade figures, currently unavailable because of an ongoing federal government shutdown.

TALKS ON EXEMPTION LIST

A Vietnamese delegation led by Trade Minister Nguyen Hong Dien is in Washington this week for a new round of talks with U.S. officials to work on finalising the trade agreement, the Vietnamese trade ministry said on its web portal.

A person briefed about the talks said negotiations would focus on identifying Vietnamese items that could be exempted from U.S. tariffs, such as coffee, and on the scope of the preferential access to the Vietnamese market that Hanoi has pledged for U.S. products, such as cars and farm goods.

The Vietnamese side aimed to finalise the deal ideally after the U.S. Supreme Court decides on the legality of U.S. tariffs imposed by Trump, and possibly by December, the person said, declining to be named because the information was not public. The court ruling is expected anytime before the end of this year and mid-2026.

Vietnamese negotiators are keen to mark the signing of a trade deal with a meeting between Trump and Vietnam's top leader To Lam, multiple officials have said.

Son urged U.S. businesses at Wednesday's conference to support Vietnam's efforts to set up the high-level meeting. Past attempts have not been successful, according to multiple officials.

He also called on U.S. businesses to encourage Washington to recognise Vietnam as a market economy and lift its restrictions on the export of high-tech products, such as advanced semiconductors.

DeSombre said Vietnam could play a role in global supply chains for critical minerals. Vietnam has large resources of rare earths and gallium but has been slow in exploiting them.

By Reuters